phillips curve_laffer curve_phillips curve公式(6)

Some “new Keynesian” and some free-market economists hold that, at best, there is only a weak tendency for an economy to return to NAIRU。 They argue that there is no natural rate of unemployment to which the actual rate tends to return。 Instead, when actual unemployment rises and remains high for some time, NAIRU also rises。 The dependence of NAIRU on actual unemployment is known as the hysteresis hypothesis。 One explanation for hysteresis in a heavily unionized economy is that unions directly represent the interests only of those who are currently employed。

Unionization, by keeping wages high, undermines the ability of those outside the union to compete for employment。 After prolonged layoffs, employed union workers may seek the benefits of higher wages for themselves rather than moderating their wage demands to promote the rehiring of unemployed workers。 According to the hysteresis hypothesis, once unemployment becomes high—as it did in Europe in the recessions of the 1970s—it is relatively impervious to monetary and fiscal stimuli, even in the short run。

The unemployment rate in France in 1968 was 1。8 percent, and in West Germany, 1。5 percent。 In contrast, since 1983, both French and West German unemployment rates have fluctuated between 7 and 11 percent。phillips curve In 2003, the French rate stood at 8。8 percent and the German rate at 8。4 percent。 The hysteresis hypothesis appears to be more relevant to Europe, where unionization is higher and where labor laws create numerous barriers to hiring and firing, than it is to the United States, with its considerably more flexible labor markets。

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