phillips curve_laffer curve_phillips curve公式(4)

Most economists now accept a central tenet of both Friedman’s and Phelps’s yses: there is some rate of unemployment that, if maintained, would be compatible with a stable rate of inflation. Many, however, call this the “nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment” (NAIRU) because, unlike the term “natural rate,” NAIRU does not suggest that an unemployment rate is socially optimal, unchanging, or impervious to policy.

A policymaker might wish to place a value on NAIRU。 To obtain a estimate, plots changes in the rate of inflation (i。e。, the acceleration of prices) against the unemployment rate from 1976 to 2002。 The expectations-augmented Phillips curve is the straight line that best fits the points on the graph (the regression line)。 It summarizes the rough inverse relationship。 According to the regression line, NAIRU (i。e。, the rate of unemployment for which the change in the rate of inflation is zero) is about 6 percent。

The slope of the Phillips curve indicates the speed of price adjustment。 Imagine that the economy is at NAIRU with an inflation rate of 3 percent and that the government would like to reduce the inflation rate to zero。 suggests that contractionary monetary and fiscal policies that drove the average rate of unemployment up to about 7 percent (i。e。, one point above NAIRU) would be associated with a reduction in inflation of about one percentage point per year。 Thus, if the government’s policies caused the unemployment rate to stay at about 7 percent, the 3 percent inflation rate would, on average, be reduced one point each year—falling to zero in about three years。

本文来自电脑杂谈，转载请注明本文网址：
http://www.pc-fly.com/a/tongxinshuyu/article-51667-4.html