phillips curve_laffer curve_phillips curve公式(2)

At the height of the Phillips curve’s popularity as a guide to policy, Edmund Phelps and Milton Friedman independently challenged its theoretical underpinnings. They argued that well-informed, rational employers and workers would pay attention only to real wages—the inflation-adjusted purchasing power of money wages. In their view, real wages would adjust to make the supply of labor equal to the demand for labor, and the unemployment rate would then stand at a level uniquely associated with that real wage—the “natural rate” of unemployment.

Both Friedman and Phelps argued that the government could not permanently trade higher inflation for lower unemployment。 Imagine that unemployment is at the natural rate。 The real wage is constant: workers who expect a given rate of price inflation insist that their wages increase at the same rate to prevent the erosion of their purchasing power。 Now, imagine that the government uses expansionary monetary or fiscal policy in an attempt to lower unemployment below its natural rate。 The resulting increase in demand encourages firms to raise their prices faster than workers had anticipated。

With higher revenues, firms are willing to employ more workers at the old wage rates and even to raise those rates somewhat。 For a short time, workers suffer from what economists call money illusion: they see that their money wages have risen and willingly supply more labor。 Thus, the unemployment rate falls。 They do not realize right away that their purchasing power has fallen because prices have risen more rapidly than they expected。 But, over time, as workers come to anticipate higher rates of price inflation, they supply less labor and insist on increases in wages that keep up with inflation。

本文来自电脑杂谈，转载请注明本文网址：
http://www.pc-fly.com/a/tongxinshuyu/article-51667-2.html