漆黑的sustain_sustained_sustain 84(4)

So we did some mathematics to study the size of these clusters. This here shows, on the Y-axis, the increase in the probability that a person is obese given that a social contact of theirs is obese and, on the X-axis, the degrees of separation between the two people. On the far left, you see the purple line. It says that, if your friends are obese, your risk of obesity is 45 percent higher. And the next bar over, the [red] line, says if your friends friends are obese, your risk of obesity is 25 percent higher. And then the next line over says if your friends friends friend, someone you probably dont even know, is obese, your risk of obesity is 10 percent higher. And its only when you get to your friends friends friends friends that theres no longer a relationship between that persons body size and your own body size.

所以我们用数学的办法研究了一下这些聚集的大小。在这里可以看到，纵轴上代表的是，如果一个人的社会联系人中有人患有肥胖症的话，那么这个人患有肥胖症的几率会增加多少；横轴上代表的是，这两个人之间的分离指数。在最左端，你看到那条紫色线。它显示如果你的朋友们有肥胖症，你肥胖的可能性就会高出45%。接下来的那条红色线显示的是，如果你的朋友的朋友有肥胖症，你患肥胖症的可能性就会高出25%。 下一条线显示如果你朋友的朋友的朋友──你可能都不认识这个人──患有肥胖症的话，你患肥胖症的可能性就会高出10%。一直追溯到你朋友的朋友的朋友的朋友的时候，这层关系才会消失，这个人的身形和你的身形才不再会有关联。

Well, what might be causing this clustering? There are at least three possibilities: One possibility is that, as I gain weight, it causes you to gain weight. A kind of induction, a kind of spread from person to person. Another possibility, very obvious, is homophily, or, birds of a feather flock together; here, I form my tie to you because you and I share a similar body size. And the last possibility is what is known as confounding, because it confounds our ability to figure out whats going on. And here, the idea is not that my weight gain is causing your weight gain, nor that I preferentially form a tie with you because you and I share the same body size, but rather that we share a common exposure to something, like a health club that makes us both lose weight at the same time.

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