Before China and US hold its 8th round of Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED), the annual communication and consultation mechanism co-chaired by respective high-level officials from finance and foreign affairs, the 21st Century Business Herald sat down with Wendy Cutler, the former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, to talk about the hot trending negotiation of US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT).
Here is the transcript as follows:
21CBH: US and China missed the chance to exchange new BIT offers which was scheduled at the end of last March. What really got stuck there according to your insiders view?
Cutler: I worked at USTR during the S&ED when China agreed to develop the negative list, one of the underlying principles for the BIT. It was a very important moment for the negotiation. 3 years later, we still have not reached an agreement on the negative list.
My view is the negative list is very difficult to put together. It essentially means everything is covered except whats on the list. In order to develop the list, agreement from the range of ministries, other government agencies, and local governments is needed.
I suspect China, while working hard on the list, is experiencing difficulties in reaching consensus.
21CBH: Observers say this round of S&ED and G20 Summit would be the possible opportunities to continue.
Cutler: Yes. The next action forcing event will be the S&ED. I would hope a revised negative list would be provided at the S&ED. Because, in my view, the G20 is too late if both sides want to conclude this negotiation under the Obama Administration. Time is running out.
21CBH: Both sides have the enough political will?
Cutler: Political will is important. But equally important are the details that reflect the political commitment. Sometimes its difficult to translate the political will into the details needed to put together a meaningful negative list.
21CBH: Will US reach a not so ambitious BIT deal with China for the sake of Obamas legacy?
Cutler: The Administration is not going to reach a deal for the sake of a deal . It needs to conclude a meaningful deal that would gain support from Congress and stakeholders. It needs to be a meaningful deal..
21CBH: How important actually is this BIT?
Cutler: It would be a milestone in our economic relationship, and a possible stepping stone towards China eventual participation in the TPP.
21CBH: The election going on is not friendly to trade. Lots of anti-trade words from major candidates. President Obama also said many times it should be US to set the rules, not China. Does both sides need to better communicate over this trade rhetoric in order to avoid misunderstanding?
Cutler: In this election, trade and trade agreement are becoming increasingly controversial issues, and there are lot of concerns expressed by both candidates on the loss of manufacturing jobs, the decline of the middle class, and the rise of income inequality among our citizens. Trade and trade agreements are being blamed for these economic challenges.
But in my view, trade and trade agreements are not the problem. High standard trade agreements are in the US interest.
With respect to US-China trade relations, we are in a rough patch. There is considerable friction on a number of trade issues between the US and China. Im sure whoever becomes the next president will want to carefully review US-China trade relations to assess whether the current approach makes sense or a different approach is needed.
My personal view is, regardless of the approach, an important element would be to continue dialogue, continue open channels of communication, and continue to work together where possible to try and resolve those problems.
21CBH: Republican candidate Donald Trump said he would tax 45% on Chinese products. Does this make sense to you?
Cutler: Of course, its possible to put a tax on another countrys imports. But it’s not cost-free.We should expect very quickly that other countries will respond. And if its China, Im sure they will respond with reciprocal action.
I do not see where these actions would get us. It leads to a trade war and ultimately results in stalled economic growth when we are already experiencing a global slow down. So its neither a wise nor an appropriate move.
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