谷歌股票?微软股票?谷歌搜索?作为投资专家十年前我为什么会看走眼(2)

    Ok, so there were a number of ways to mess this up, and I did all of them. My first mistake was to assume that Google’s sales growth would be a stable 30% a year. Online advertising was increasing, and I figured Google would get a slice of that. What I didn’t understand was that Google wouldn’t just get a slice, but nearly all of it. As a result, Google’s revenue has grown an average of 50% a year over the past decade.

    Also, I thought there was a high probability that I was overestimating how profitable Google could be. I said there was a strong possibility that Google would end up with Netscape in the internet graveyard. Based on its current profitability, I said Google could earn $48 billion over its lifetime. But that, I said, was unlikely. What’s more, inflation would eat up the value of a lot of those profits. So I used a discount rate of 15%, per year, to figure out that the value of those profits was more like $15 billion.

    Not even close. Google’s actual cash flow over the past decade has been just over $90 billion, and inflation has been basically non-existent.

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